Defiant Powell vs. Adamant Trump
Rally Fueled by Political Sparks, Liquidity Dynamics, and FOMC Catalysts
Hello speculators and FOMC week enjoyers,
Last week we had the funniest Trump moment(up to that point) in the markets.
On April 30, 2025, President Trump declared “It is Biden’s stock market and not Trump’s,” marking a pivot: the S&P 500 bottomed at that truthsocial post and rallied 4.29 % by Friday’s close, driven by broad tech strength (ex-Apple) and stronger-than-expected jobs data . Liquidity from dealer gamma and systematic flows underpinned the move.
But first, recap of some select ideas from last week.
note: Paid subscribers get detailed idea breakdowns based on algorithmic levels and orderflow tools. Telegram channel and chat access is complimentary with the paid substack subscription.
But Algo, I really just want to make a tonne of money and buy a lambo and I have no interest in reading what the Fed might do this week, not like you can help me with that.
Okay fine!
BONUS: PARLAYS BUT FOR FINANCE
The content below is strictly for educational entertainment. It is not investment advice, a solicitation to trade, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, futures, option, or digital asset. Futures, options, and crypto carry leverage that can exceed your initial stake and you may lose more than 100 % of your capital. Past performance statistics do not predict future results. Always consult a licensed financial professional before acting on any idea here.
This week’s Parlays but for Finance sheet distills the macro pressure points. Treasury auctions, Powell’s mic, DOE inventory all into five asymmetrical trades:
Gamma Slingshot rides a dealer‑gamma flip above ES 5 710.
Basis Hybrid harvests a sub‑10 % BTC carry with built‑in downside put.
Vol‑Arb Strangle sells 1‑week ES vol that’s double five‑day realised.
Tariff Tango pairs a CNH spike with an ES micro hedge for headline risk.
Crude Vacuum bets DOE builds will deepen the Jun/Dec WTI contango.
Trigger clock tells you exactly when to arm each position; scenario matrix shows the expected R. Basket expectancy: ≈ +2.1 R for 1 % NAV at risk per line. high‑convexity without roulette odds.
note: substack does not allow me to drop an entire HTML into this post without breaking email integrations,
Upgrade to paid newsletter for detailed breakdown on all these ideas and more.
FOMC WEEK DEBRIEF
Wall Street begins the week with a conspicuous divergence: index futures have just scored the best five‑day stretch of the year while benchmark yields grind higher and crude oil slides into a late‑spring funk.
E‑mini S&P (Jun 25) settled Friday at 5 710.50, a 3.26 % weekly gain that extends a nine‑session winning streak.
E‑mini Nasdaq‑100 (Jun 25) closed at 20 204.50, up 4.07 % as megacaps shook off April’s earnings fatigue.
WTI crude (Jun 25) slumped to $58.29, a seven‑week low, after OPEC+ confirmed a 411 k bpd quota bump for June.
Bitcoin marched to $96 700 on steady ETF inflows, shrugging off the stronger dollar.
The 10‑year Treasury yield closed the week at 4.25 %, six basis points higher, leaving the 2s10s spread at +50 bp; its steepest since 2022.
Why the optimism in equities when rates and energy send a colder signal? Liquidity. The largest option dealers remain long gamma beneath key pivots (ES 5 760, NQ 19 980), dampening realised volatility and encouraging systematic flows to keep buying every shallow dip. That cushion now confronts its sternest test of the quarter: $125 billion in coupon supply and an FOMC that must decide whether April’s blanket 10 % tariff is a transitory price pop or a new inflation regime.
Narrative Calendar
Monday : The Short Note.
Treasury sells $58 billion of three‑year notes at 13:00 ET. A clean bid‑to‑cover above 2.40× would quiet the curve for forty‑eight hours; anything nearer 2.20× would goose term‑premium chatter before the ten‑year hits the block. Morning ISM‑Services prints do background duty unless the index slips below 51, the soft‑landing Maginot line.
Tuesday : The Duration Test.
The $42 billion ten‑year reopening is the fulcrum. The prior sale tailed +1.9 bp with just 59 % indirect demand. Another weak print invites a rapid unwind of the nine‑day equity melt‑up. Trade‑balance data, the first post‑tariff snapshot, will pre‑populate inflation models but will not deter desks from staring at the auction at 13:00 ET.
Wednesday : The Fed.
No‑change is unanimous; wording is everything. If the statement drops “persistent” from the phrase “persistent inflation risks,” July cut odds vault above fifty percent. Powell’s tone will be judged against a backdrop of sticky services CPI and a curve that now prices four cuts in 2026.
Thursday : The Long Bond.
At 4 % to 4.2 %, the thirty‑year ought to attract pension and life‑insurer demand, yet recent refundings hint at investor fatigue beyond the ten‑year. Productivity and unit‑labour‑costs data drop pre‑bell; only a shock spike in ULC could force a hawkish re‑pricing ahead of the bond auction at 13:00 ET.
Friday : The Warehouse Tell.
Wholesale‑inventory figures close the week. If tariff‑front‑running is real, warehouses will show it; a surprise build would lop a few tenths off Q2 GDP trackers and partially counteract any bond‑friendly signal from Thursday.
Asset Narratives
Equity Futures.
The S&P’s 20‑day moving average now sits twenty‑four points below Friday’s close; every intraday excursion beneath it last week was bought within the hour. A decisive push through 5 760 would flip dealer gamma negative and replace drift with thrust. The Nasdaq’s equivalent threshold is 19 980; a close above converts passive gamma suppression into active upside chase just as earnings season fades.
Rates.
Curve re‑steepening is no longer an academic curiosity. With the two‑year anchored by a “wait‑and‑see” Fed, long‑duration auctions are dictating the rhythm. A three‑handle tail on the ten‑year is enough to flatten the equity strip by a full percent intra‑day, history shows.
Crude.
The OPEC cartel’s supply gesture looks modest, but the market saw enough to take the path of least resistance: break 200‑DMA, flush momentum money, and slide the Jun/Dec spread to –1.20. Inventory builds of four million barrels last week add weight to a widening contango thesis.
Bitcoin.
CME June basis collapsed to 6 % annualised as ETF inflows lifted spot faster than futures. That compression invites classic carry: long spot, short futures, re‑expand to eight‑plus percent once event‑vol passes, provided equity markets hold their ground.
WEEKLY LEVELS
Below we outline the exact trade levels for S&P, Nasdaq, Gold, and Crude for this week. Paid subs get full access.
Subscribers are urged to use the tradingview indicator to plot the levels.