Fintwit 101
Oh no, yet another substack.
Those who trade, trade. Those who can’t, sell stock picks on the internet.
This is not financial advice. I’m not qualified to provide financial, emotional and even restaurant tip percentage advice(anything between 15-20% is fine by me).
So why this substack?
Writing on twitter is usually unstructured, scattered brain storm that serves no purpose.
Here we will discuss the purpose.
The why’s of trading more than the how’s of trading.
Why do you want to trade?
To make money and flex, duh!
Research has shown most buy & hold investors actually make more than 97% of day traders.
”But I’m in the 3%”
Sure bud, yes you are.
Next thing that people who are new to the markets usually do is follow “that guy” on twitter. That guy can be anyone, and no one. That guy will post screenshots of his winners and will show a 1200% gain on his weekly lotto option on $TSLA and will tell you that he has a direct line to Elon himself and they chat about everything including his obsession for the newest canine crypto.
Your guy will fall in four categories.
1) The charlatan: This guy will only trade risky lotto weekly options on high beta stocks and as the law of averages go, he will hit 1 home run and strike out everything else. If you did not buy the homerun, your account is now ruined and you also paid him $100-500/mo for the privilege of ruining your account.
2) The penny-bio pumper: This guy will not charge an upfront fee for the stock picks and alerts. But will only trade low volume penny stocks(OTC preferred for the spread) and front-run his lackeys and followers. Biotech and penny stocks will move on any catalyst and while this strategy can be profitable most new traders will provide the exit liquidity to that guy.
3) Wishy-washy FURUS: These can range from general investors, traders to big names like Cramer. They pick stocks, people buy them and sometimes make money, sometimes lose money. However, they don’t share their P&L and a hidden dick can be a 20 inch dick. This smoke and mirrors truly helps them cement their place on the fintwit ladder.
4) The good trader: Some guy who consistently generates alpha, shares it for free, owns up to his losses and provides entries and exits. He can help you. But only if you help yourself with proper trade discipline.
So if you pick a random guy there is a 75% chance you will pick the wrong guy(assuming these are normally distributed), more likely 90% of the times you will pick the wrong guy. You will tail him into risky trades and blow up your account, call the markets a casino and end your torrid affair of checking futures every night.
That would be a good outcome.
This is the hardest chess game on the planet. You cannot do it in between your zoom meetings while using the free version of tradingview.
Just stick to index funds, maybe dabble in the UPRO/TMF strategy or sell covered calls. These are low risk approaches to increase wealth over time.
“But I want to be rich today, not 20 years from now”.
Okay fine. But are you cool about failing 5-8 times(may be more) till you find the correct entries, exits, stops, flow, Fed sentiment and the sector-based cashflow changes?
“No:"
Well then fuck you.
For those who are willing to learn, buckle up. Occasionally I will get workd up and show the process that works sometimes, doesn’t other times. But mostly works(as of today).