Schrödinger's Ceasefire
Hello all,
On Sunday, April 12, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy would “immediately” begin blockading “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave” the Strait of Hormuz, labeling Iran’s toll collections as “illegal” and “world extortion.” He ordered the Navy to interdict any vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran and instructed U.S. Central Command to begin de-mining the waterway. CENTCOM subsequently announced that enforcement of the blockade against all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports would begin Monday. Crucially, CENTCOM clarified that vessels transiting the Strait between non-Iranian ports would not be impeded; this is a blockade of Iranian commerce, not a closure of the Strait itself.
The announcement came hours after the collapse of 21-hour marathon negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, between Vice President J.D. Vance’s delegation and Iranian officials. The talks broke down over Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rejected the blockade outright, warning that any enemy attempting to challenge their control over the waterway would be trapped in a “deadly vortex.”
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