Weekly Market outlook 10/6/2024
CPI week
Hello traders,
Hope you had a great weekend. To begin, let us recap last week.
Sunday Night:
I initiated the short at 248, aligning with a key resistance level based on my model’s projections. Once I captured a +100 move, I trimmed some of the position to lock in realized P&L—taking partial profits at predefined thresholds helps reduce variance and smooth out the equity curve. The remaining exposure was left to run with a trailing stop to manage downside risk dynamically.
Later, I scaled back into the trade with additional size, but the execution caused my weighted average price to deteriorate a bit—slippage was higher than anticipated. Before the session ended, I set a stop at 224, just above a recent consolidation cluster, aiming to preserve unrealized gains and mitigate overnight tail risk.
Overall, trimming at +100 was key to securing early alpha, while the stop placement was a systematic way to manage adverse risk while allowing for potential continuation.
Monday:
I initiated a short at 244, targeting a key resistance zone. The price dropped quickly to 201, so I trimmed part of the position to lock in some profit, reducing my exposure to intraday volatility. Shortly after, I decided to flatten at 157, as the move extended and hit a key support level, giving me a strong risk/reward on the full trade.
After flattening, I noted the possibility of a bounce off this level, but I opted not to long. My short bias remained intact, so I was waiting for a level below 180 to consider any further action. The coffee break aligned with a clear exhaustion point in the market, giving me space to assess the next potential move without getting caught in any counter-trend noise.
Overall, it was a clean short execution: entered at resistance, managed risk by trimming early, and flattened at a key support zone. The decision to stay out of longs reflected my directional bias and kept me out of any potential traps during the retracement.
Standard SPX lotto based on vibes which mooned later.
Tuesday:
Going into October 1st, I wasn't trading Globex, but I identified the 270-290 zone as a clear resistance area where bulls would likely struggle. I marked it as a potential short opportunity if price action moved back up against that level.
When the market opened, I went short against 20000, a key round level with confluence from the previous day’s analysis. I chased a bit to 970, which wasn't ideal, but the momentum was strong enough to justify the entry. As the drop accelerated, I trimmed +40 quickly, locking in some gains to manage risk.
Momentum kept building, and I took out +80 more as the price continued tanking. Around 10:28 AM, I fully flattened the position at +100, given the extreme downside move—it was a classic example of not overstaying in a high-volatility environment. I didn't want to push my luck further, so I secured the gains and stepped aside.
Afterward, I grabbed a coffee—market had extended, and there wasn't any need to re-enter without letting it breathe. This was a textbook short play: identified a difficult zone for bulls, shorted against a strong level, trimmed early to reduce risk, and fully flattened before any potential reversal or bounce-back occurred.
The bias was short from the start, so I went in at 950 once the market started to roll over. The momentum was clearly strong, so I trimmed +30 early to lock in some gains, followed by +60 as the drop continued. By 11:05 AM, things were going smoothly enough to throw out the “DRILL BABY DRILL” GIF—market was doing exactly what I needed.
Hit +100 on the trade, but I didn’t fully flatten. Instead, I kept a runner going with a break-even stop to see if the sell-off would extend further. The trims helped secure early profits, reducing exposure, while the runner kept me in the game for more potential downside without additional risk. Solid execution overall—locked in the bulk of the move, but still had skin in the game for any follow-through.
After market sold off more, I got into a counter-trend long from 890 that netted 130 pts almost instantly.
And then to close out the day an SPX put lotto that went up nicely.
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WEDNESDAY:
I entered short at 043.5, targeting a continuation of the downtrend. Unfortunately, I hit a stop loss at -18 shortly after the entry, but I quickly re-entered with a short at 075.75, marking it as my last trade for the day. I was confident in the setup, so I wasn’t hesitant to jump back in.
Trimmed at +24 as the trade worked in my favor, and then let the rest run. I noted that the 043-040 level needed to break decisively for the move to continue, or else we’d likely see an upward reversal. When it broke, I trimmed more at +84, locking in solid gains. I set a break-even stop on the remaining position to eliminate risk, riding the trade without worry.
Hit +100 on the last big trim, and by 1:02 PM, I was down to just 1 contract, holding it with a stop at 070. It was just a small runner at that point, but overall, the trade was clean. Managed the risk well after the initial stop out, secured profits at key levels, and left a runner for any potential extended move.
I shorted at 20010.75 after getting back home, and the market moved in my favor. I trimmed +35 points early to secure some profit and then set a stop on the rest of the position, planning to sleep. I put a hard stop for 11:30 PM Eastern, ensuring I could go to bed without worrying about managing the trade.
Around 12:19 AM, I flattened the rest at +65 points—there was a potential bounce at that level, but I wasn’t staying awake to monitor it. Before sleeping, I noted that NQ failing to clear 950 was a bearish signal, and anyone still awake could consider shorting again around the 955-970 zone. I was already done for the night, though.
Overall, it was a well-managed trade—trimmed early to lock in gains, and flattened the rest at a good point. Those who stayed in or took the additional short saw a nice 100-point move, but I was satisfied with the way I handled the risk and called it a night.
Thursday:
I went short on NQ at 108, recognizing it was a counter-trend move, so I quickly set a stop to manage risk. Called out that my short range was 100-120, noting this wasn’t a typical trend-following trade but something you could skip if you couldn’t manage the risk.
The market played out in my favor, so I started trimming at key levels: took +40 points on the first trim, then +75 points shortly after. I was feeling good about the trade, but left a runner in to capture any remaining downside.
At the same time, I went long on CL at 73, driven by big news out of Israel. Trimmed +40 ticks on the CL long to secure profits and then added more to the position. Once the move slowed, I decided to exit the CL long entirely at 86, keeping only my NQ short runner.
At the end of this, I planned to hold the remaining NQ short till the end of the day, having locked in solid gains from both positions. This was a well-balanced mix of counter-trend shorting on NQ with a solid long play on CL, securing profits along the way and managing risk effectively with trims and stops.
I added to my NQ short at 047, confident in the trade. I called out that trimming was an option for anyone looking to manage risk. I continued adding at 047, and as the move extended, I trimmed +60 points to secure some profit while still holding a position.
I mentioned that no one needed to copy my exits—everyone should manage their trades based on their own strategy. At 12:53 PM, I trimmed again on my adds, this time at +120 points, locking in more gains as the trade continued in my favor.
I was also watching CL, noting that 73.6 was a good level to trim for those in that trade. By 1:01 PM, I flattened my NQ short at 890 from 047 and 110, taking home solid gains.
The trade was well-executed: adding size at good levels, trimming along the way to reduce risk, and flattening to lock in profits. It was a consistent approach of managing risk while letting the trade develop.
I initially shorted at 219.25 with a tight 15-point stop. The market didn’t move much, so I ended up getting out at breakeven. I quickly re-entered at 218 when the setup looked stronger.
Trimmed +25 points early to lock in some quick gains, then pushed further, taking a bigger trim at +50 points as the market moved. I decided not to keep a stop on the rest of the position and let it run.
As things progressed, I took a +115-point trim, leaving only a runner. I set a target for the runner at 200pts, calling out 20018 as the target. I added some size along the way, managing the trade as it developed.
Trimmed +30 points on the adds, and then another +65 points shortly after, continuing to lock in profits. At 10:09 AM, I called it done for the day, as the trade had played out well. Finally, I hit my target, securing the full 200 points on the 218 short, flattening the position entirely.
Overall, the trade was well-managed, with early trims, adding size as it moved in my favor, and securing the full target while protecting risk.
And finally
Moving on,
Main focus this week is going to be on CPI and if the Fed fucked up by cutting 50bps into a strong jobs report. This rebound inflation can cause to spook the markets a little.
There is also event-risk on Crude oil through the Israel-Palestine conflict. I’m not a geopolitics expert so I will abstain from making any claims. However crude oil remains bid and volatilty was also up on Friday even though we ended the day green on indices so that points towards higher moves on CL in the short term.
Levels for the week:
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