Weekly Market outlook 11/24
Turkey week
Hello traders,
Hope you had a great weekend and some well deserved time away from screens.
Recap of last week’s select ideas.
Standard SPX lotto.
Man, I knew I was pushing it when I doubled up my size on that NQ short at 20,790, but my neural nets were screaming at me about the trade idea. Had a tight 20-point stop to keep myself honest, and honestly, when I hit send, my stomach was doing backflips - definitely one of those "steak or ramen" moments we all joke about but secretly dread. The way I had my system configured, it picked up on the momentum shift along with the weekly level, and thank god it played out. Started scaling out systematically as we dropped - first trim at +26, then caught another piece at +70. The beautiful thing about running these algos is they keep you disciplined - no revenge trading, no getting cute with exits. Sure, I probably gave my risk management system a heart attack with the 2x sizing, but when your models are showing that kind of conviction, sometimes you've got to trust them and pull the trigger. Still, probably won't make doubling up a habit - my blood pressure can't take too many more days like this, even if it worked out this time.
Early morning NQ action was sweet- my nets picked up a beautiful short entry at 800 with what looked like exhaustion signals forming. Started the day right at 4:54 AM with a systematic entry and a tight 20-point stop loss. The pre-market liquidity was just starting to flow and my models were showing strong potential for a move down. First trim came quick at +28 points - always nice to get paid early when you're running algos in the pre-market. Had my system automatically move stops to breakeven after that first scale-out, then caught another nice trim at 753. Market microstructure was showing some serious selling pressure, validating what my neural nets were picking up. Love these early morning trades when the signals are clean and the moves are smooth. Decided to grab a coffee after those trims - sometimes the hardest part of systematic trading is just letting your models do their thing and not interfering. The follow-through to the downside was textbook, and having those predetermined scale-out levels keeps the emotions in check. These pre-market entries can be tricky, but when your neural nets are properly trained on these time windows, they can spot patterns that most discretionary traders miss in the thin volume.
Textbook day after that.
Caught a decent chunk of the morning move on NQ Thursday- system flagged a long at 650 and I decided to follow it despite some initial hesitation. First trim came at +65, standard risk reduction. Then things really accelerated - much faster than usual market flow. Managed another scale at +120 before it just fell off a cliff, dropping 70 points in a blink. Had to step back for a minute after that whipsaw - even with systematic trading these fast moves can get intense. Models flipped short at 672 but after a move like that, learned the hard way to wait for better confirmation. The neural nets had picked up on some unusual order flow patterns before the big move, which was nice validation of the signals. Taking a quick break to reset - these volatile periods need extra focus to trade properly. Good reminder that no matter how solid your system is, the market can always surprise you.
At about 10:20 System flagged a compression formation at 10:20, momentum indicators showing downward bias with decreasing volume delta. Neural nets calculated ~70% probability of downside resolution based on order flow patterns. Price structure matched historical compression templates in my database. Almost hit my algorithmic entry targets but sequence wasn't optimal for my parameters. Shared the alert since statistical edge was clear even though my own position filters weren't triggering. Model showed typical pre-break reduction in market depth and size imbalance. Standard deviation contraction aligned with historical breakdown patterns.
On Thursday I had to take flu-shot which meant I slept through my alarms and only showed up at 2pm.
Got like 10pts and 6pts shorting ES and called it a week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: The substack would be closed from Nov 27-Dec 29, existing subs paused Dec 3. I will be sending another weekly plan with levels next weekend and after that, I will be back 30th December.
Moving on,