Weekly Market Outlook 2/22/2026
Nvidia Earnings
Hello traders,
I hope you all had a great weekend.
We had an excellent short week last week and ended up on the right side of the tape more often than not.
Brief summary here.
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THE FOUR TRILLION QUESTION : NVIDIA EARNINGS
Nvidia reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings on February 25, 2026, carrying consensus expectations of approximately $65.56 billion to $65.68 billion in revenue and EPS near $1.46 to $1.52. Data center sales dominate the forecast at roughly $58.72 billion to $59.9 billion. Short term equities market volatility is guaranteed yet directionally unpredictable. Historical data confirms that pure earnings beats no longer drive immediate valuation appreciation. Pricing dynamics now rely entirely on Q1 fiscal 2027 forward guidance, specifically concerning Blackwell architecture production scaling, TSMC packaging capacity bottlenecks, and the preservation of gross margins in the mid 70 percent range. Guidance deviating downward from aggressive growth metrics will initiate severe liquidation.
Long term market impact is contingent upon the structural permanence of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. Nvidia projects a $500 billion revenue path for its Blackwell and Rubin chip lines through 2026. This aligns with anticipated global data center expenditures escalating to between $3 trillion and $4 trillion annually by 2030. However forecast reliability remains suspect due to epistemological uncertainty surrounding circular artificial intelligence deals, inventory overbuilds, and unquantifiable geopolitical regulatory obfuscation. Sustained equity growth demands flawless execution of the architectural roadmap and empirical evidence of expanding enterprise workload diversification beyond concentrated cloud provider capital expenditure cycles.
What to Watch
Beyond the headline revenue and EPS numbers, focus on these specifics:
Blackwell ramp timeline: When do shipments meaningfully accelerate? Any delays matter because the product cycle is the growth engine.
Gross margin trajectory: Can they hold 74% as mix shifts to new products, or do yields and ramp costs pressure profitability?
China exposure: How much revenue is still coming from a region facing escalating restrictions? Any surprises here could be problematic.
Customer concentration: Are Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google still buying at the same pace, or is there any sign of digestion?
Inference versus training: The bull case long-term depends on AI moving from model training (where Nvidia dominates) to inference (where competition is fiercer). Any data points on inference revenue mix help answer whether the moat persists.
The Economic Picture: Can Goldilocks Last?
Markets are walking a tightrope right now. Growth is holding up better than anyone expected, but we’re also dealing with genuine powder kegs overseas and corporate earnings that could make or break the quarter. As February winds down, traders are trying to figure out whether this “Goldilocks” scenario (decent growth without runaway inflation) can actually survive the real world.
The Supreme Court just threw a wrench in the works by striking down broad presidential tariff powers, which has everyone scrambling to recalculate what this means for bond yields, deficits, and the dollar. Meanwhile, tensions are flaring in the Middle East and we’re hitting the four-year mark of the Russia-Ukraine war, both of which are keeping energy markets on edge.
The story of early 2026 has been the economy refusing to roll over. Despite some messy data from the late 2025 government shutdown, the underlying picture looks solid.
Manufacturing is finally waking up. The ISM index hit 52.6 in January, the best since early last year, and the Philly Fed jumped to 16.3. New orders are growing and price pressures are actually easing a bit, which is exactly what you want to see. Historically, this kind of manufacturing rebound favors value stocks, small caps, and industrials over the growth names that dominated for years.
Labor markets look weird but stable. Jobless claims are hanging around 200,000, which suggests employers aren’t hiring aggressively but also aren’t laying off. That’s good for consumer spending without triggering the wage-price spiral that would force the Fed’s hand.
But inflation isn’t going quietly. Headline CPI looked tame at 0.2% month-over-month in January, but dig deeper and it’s messier. Used car prices dragged the core goods number down artificially. Strip that out and core goods inflation actually accelerated to 0.36%.
So, what can exactly go wrong in this situation?
