Weekly Market Outlook 3/2/2025
National Crypto Reserve it seems.
Hello traders,
We had an interesting week in the markets this past week.
A quick recap of select trades from last week.
As insinuated in last week’s plan , we did reach 5890s on ES from 6065s
And after a brief sojourn to 5850s we had an insane 110pt V shaped recovery to close out the month.
Bitcoin saw huge volatility last week with it tumbling from 96400s to 78270s and then recovering on good PCE data to 86100s on Saturday night. And then just this morning, US President Donald Trump announced strategic Crypto reserve.
All cryptocurrencies rallied off this announcement and bitcoin is trading at 94500 at 5:50pm ET. Cryptocurrencies are slowly turning into an establishment tool and the core message of Satoshi has been diluted by nation states co-opting crypto and turning it into the same tradfi structure that cryptocurrenciesd were opposed to in the first place.
Key Drivers
Tariffs: The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports starting March 4, alongside a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures could dampen corporate earnings and weigh on equities.
Jobs Data: Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will be critical. A strong jobs number could bolster confidence in the economy but may also reduce expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
PMI Data: Manufacturing and Services PMI figures will provide insights into economic activity across sectors.
Tariff news will dominate this week, but as always we can see Trump again pushing it out for a month or so. For ES, the downside target is 5728 for March contract.
We are seeing good volatility on the indices this year and giving us extremely tradable ranges making it a trader’s market.