Weekly Market Outlook 3/22/2026
Decision time
Hello traders,
This past week, the fed held the rates steady and the geopolitical unrest caused the global markets to sell off into Friday.
We were well positioned with our NQ shorts, QQQ put spreads and CL longs.
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The Fed has its task cut out, inflation is not at post-pandemic crushing levels but it is sticky enough (even without the current geopolitical turmoil).
Target rate probabilities are hovering at 350-375bps base case by end of the year. Even though Warsh will be dovish, however the the chair does not individually decide the rate decision(even though President Trump thinks so)
Shelter and services pressure has not rolled over enough to give the Fed confidence to cut, and wage pressure in parts of the service economy remains another thorn.
WHAT IS UP(or down) WITH GOLD?
Who is selling gold?
The answer is not that direct but we can estimate that the Gulf Council Countries are selling the accumulated Gold (roughly $3 Trillion worth) because of checks notes being bombed every day.
Once the U.S. began hostilities on March 2, every side likely switched to preplanned contingency playbooks. GCC actors, coordinated or not, started raising cash by selling gold, equities, and Treasuries. As the conflict dragged on, collateral values fell, and lenders exposed to GCC debt likely began issuing margin calls. Credit conditions would have tightened quickly. Critical infra was being hit, hundreds of ships were stranded behind the strait and the less we talk about oil wells the better it is. So asset prices were under pressure from two directions at once: normal risk-off selling and forced selling tied to GCC liquidity needs.When will the sell stop?
A lasting peace deal will cause Gold to stabilize and increase its value.But I was told Gold is a hedge in times of uncertainty.
Yeah, welcome to the real world bud.
