Weekly Market Outlook 3/29/2026
Hello traders,
Last week we had quite a week in the markets where after a brief relief rally, the broader market kept going down at a rather orderly pace and crude traded triple digits once again.
We closed our shorts and QQQ puts in the PM session on Friday.
This is not to say the market has bottomed or we will go to new all time highs in X weeks. However as prudent traders we have decided to close our short exposure as of now and not hold anything through the weekend due to the nature of this news-based market.
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TRADING IN TACO-TIMES
Intra-day trading in this market with your typical momentum/mean-revert strategies is not going to be a fun time unless you got the infrastructure and/or you are working in an HFT like setup.
But Algo I’m a crackhead daytrader and I need to trade everyday.
This sounds like a you problem, so I let you work on it.
Jokes apart, this is what I think.
Intraday action on indices has been news-driven and hence if you use stop losses, it quickly starts turning negative EV(assuming suboptimal path dependency). Most of you reading this would be aghast and be like "Is the paragon of risk Algo telling us to abandon stoplosses entirely?”
Well, yes and no.
If you run a selective timeframe ADR on say NQ, you can study historical adverse excursion over the timeframe you trade and cluster the data by volatility regime. If your stop sits outside normal noise, the trade can survive routine shakeouts.
However, if you are margin challenged, this can mean risking $3000-6000 per contract. Add in variance and out of sample behavior, you are looking at a possibility where you are out of 30-40K even if you are “right” directionally but get screwed over by breaking news or Trump tweets and so on.
In this situation, I would love to
