Weekly Market Outlook 4/26/2026
It takes two to Taco
Hello traders,
Markets chugged along nicely this week and made new all time highs on both Spooz and Qs as President Trump extended the ceasefire unilaterally by three weeks.
Realtime Discord access with equity positions tracker(new website rolling out to select subscribers), intraday orderflow & option dealer summaries included with the paid newsletter membership . Click here to subscribe.
But(there is always a but) as soon as the market closed, there were murmurs that US delegation to Pakistan may not happen and right on cue a “TRUTH” was shared by the President on Saturday afternoon.
So we are back to square one (yet 600 points higher on SPX, finance is wonderful)
EQUITY SPOTLIGHT
We closed our AMD, COHR and LUNR positions in the model portfolio on Friday, the X thread linked below explains the thesis on the trades so I would not repeat it here.
That brings us to closing out most of our high beta convex trades in the tech and semis space since early last year.
We are not in the business of calling tops or bottoms, but if I see a company run up 400% in just over a year, I will take chips off the table to wait for the market to cool down a bit and reallocate capital towards a less “hot” sector so to speak.
EUPHORIA SEASON 3
I meant the market euphoria and not the Sydney Sweeney one, but if it helps keeping you on this post instead of scrolling away, so be it.
Due to the unbelievable rally off the lows, the market is now solidly in the greed stage. Trump might play the war card a couple more times but ground invasion in the face of midterms is something even John Bolton would stay away from. We have tech earnings this and the next week with the bulk of megacaps reporting this week.
The MAG7 stocks have a lot to prove especially with them going all in on capex spend/hyperscalers and laying off workforce (not so much by Apple but by the rest).
This past week Google announced it is going to invest upto $40 billion into Anthropic.
So the gameplan here by Sundar & co is to hedge their bets with Gemini and Anthropic. This is quite similar to Elon Musk’s SpaceX licensing Cursor and getting an option to acquire them for $60 Billion.
MAG7 companies sans Nvidia are now in a race to AGI and if AGI/ASI is all that is cracked up to be, the capex would seem like a negligible expense in order to advance humanity. However, if AGI/ASI is unable to provide the ROI on the hyperscaler investments, this can cause a sharp correction in the stock price.
Nvidia is the shovel selling business and will likely just laugh its way to the bank.
