Weekly Plan 12/4
Holiday cheer
Hello traders,
I hope you had a great weekend.
I had a very quiet weekend with 10 hour night sleep on both Friday and Saturday.
I totally recommend it and this tweet exemplifies it.
Switching gears a bit here, an interesting paper that came out recently in the Nature journal.
More research is definitely required but if GLP-1 agonists definitely look like something that AUD market can look into.
Long term subscribers would know that the newsletter was bullish LLY 0.00%↑ since the middle of the year and I would not initiate fresh positions here on it here.
Regarding AMGN 0.00%↑ (Amgen) AMG133, it shows promising potential as the best candidate, although this conclusion is drawn from a relatively small sample size in Phase 1 trials. However, its effectiveness in managing glycemia remains unclear. Interestingly, its mechanism of antagonizing GIP (as opposed to agonizing it) might lead to more significant weight loss, but potentially with a lesser impact on blood sugar regulation.
Another interesting drug is Bimagrumab by Novartis. It has failed trials in the past so not super optimistic but it has some effects on male fertility(reversible).
On the short side, alcohol companies basket BUD 0.00%↑ (budweiser) DEO 0.00%↑ (diageo) and so forth could be explored as strategic shorts alongwith some chocolate/snacking companies like $LISP( lindt) or HSY 0.00%↑ (Hershey) , more so the former than the latter as GLP/GIP drugs would be costly for some foreseeable future(need to recover those research costs *cough mansions for execs*)
This newsletter would monitor this research on the effects of GLP/GIP agonists as the author currently is in the process of quitting nicotine for good(For realz this time).
Moving on,
In the high-stakes game of the equity markets, as we slide into the final rounds of this year, it's clear the bulls are holding a strong hand, especially in the Russell 2000 & DJIA arenas. Think of it like sitting at the poker table with quad aces– these indices are playing close to their chest, revealing strength as they closed near the week's highs. The strategy? When the chips are down, it's time to buy in, at least until we see those indices folding at the day's lows.
Switching tables to the Nasdaq, we're seeing some players hedging their bets. There’s a sense of hesitation, like Negreanu pausing to read the room. Historically, in the last laps of the year, the tech sector tends to bluff with a minor pullback – about 1% – while the $SPX plays a more conservative game, with a smaller pullback.
Now, let's talk about the $SPX. We're tantalizingly close to all-time highs, like being one card away from a royal flush. But here's the thing about the market – first attempts at these highs are often a high-stakes bluff. The market will likely test the waters, retreat a bit, and then steadily up the ante until that resistance is finally busted. It's like a slow grind in poker, chipping away at the pot until the table tilts in your favor. Sometimes you have an exceptional trade hidden in plain sight.
Over at the gold table, the game's heating up. Last week, we saw a frenzy, almost like a wild, last-minute bet, driving gold to an all-time high close. Keep your eyes peeled for December 13th – that's when the FOMC is set to show its hand. This could be a game-changer for gold, especially with the ECB likely bowing out of the rate-hiking game.
So, as we look across the financial poker tables, the overall mood is bullish – the DJIA, $IWM, and $SPX are playing strong hands. But in the Nasdaq corner, there's a bit of caution, like a player unsure whether to hold 'em or fold 'em. And in the gold market, players are watching the central banks, waiting to see who bluffs and who reveals a winning hand.
In this market, it's all about knowing when to bet big and when to hold back, just like Hellmuth (when he isn’t tilting).
I have been getting some DMs about crypto projects I’m interested in, I will write another post midweek about it. Please remember that crypto has a very high beta and only “invest” money you are comfortable losing as the asset class is marred with issues that I will not get into as it is beyond the scope of this newsletter (always wanted to write this line)
Levels for this week: