Weekly Plan 3/17
No cuts to be seen here
Hello traders,
Last week was a good week for us where we were able to capture good points from the market.
On CPI day we were able to catch NQ short from 360 which went to 176 and then I called it a day.
Our longer term bot idea on RTY short has paid 120 points with 3.5pt drawdown
And this evening we did another small scalp for 32pts on NQ
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Moving on,
Main event this week is the FOMC where Chair Powell is expected to keep rates steady and then release the dot plot of fed rate cuts this year.
There is a fair chance that a hawkish powell could make us revisit the 5122 area on ES(June contract) and 17631 on Nasdaq respectively.
This is not a bad thing for equity bulls in the grand scheme of things.
If we encounter a mild dip in the S&P 500, around the 2.5-3.75% mark, that’s prime territory for those who missed the initial lift-off this year. Don't bank on a major pullback; the stats don't back a descent beyond 6% in our current bullish phase.
Despite these bullish undertones, our metrics hint at a potential downtrend this week.
Plus, historically, late March post opex is prime opportunity for bears to show some strength.
Come Wednesday, all eyes will be on Powell at 2 PM ET, followed by a presser at 2:30 PM ET. With the NAAIM exposure index recently scaling '21 heights, Powell’s narrative could very well dictate whether traders hit the brakes or continue to ride the momentum.
Levels for this week:
These are the levels for this week: