Weekly Plan 9/29
I had a bunch of time this weekend (if reading in email, click on read more to load the levels)
Hello traders,
Hope you had a great weekend.
Let's take a moment to reflect on last week's performance and dissect our approach. In response to numerous requests from subscribers for deeper insights into specific trades, this week I’ll walk you through my decision-making process—explaining not just the entry and exit points but the strategic rationale behind taking profits and scaling out with partial trims. My goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how I manage risk, optimize returns, and navigate dynamic market conditions, so you can better grasp the nuances behind each move (gosh so pretentious lmao)
Sunday night trade:
At 1:09 AM, I manually shorted the NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures at 20134. The decision wasn’t random—my neural networks were already highlighting significant sell-side pressure, with the market profile showing a lot of volume building up at the highs. I like to trust the data, but I still prefer executing the trades myself, so after watching the order flow deteriorate, I went in short.
By 2:01 AM, I had +40 points in the bag and decided to trim the position. The models suggested holding for a bigger move, but I’ve seen too many reversals not to take something off the table when things start looking a bit stretched. The order book was showing signs of buyers stepping in, so I reduced risk, even though my bots were still in favor of the trade.
At 3:10 AM, I trimmed again, locking in +100 points. The market continued to break lower, and while the algorithms still showed more downside potential, the volume was thinning out. I trust my systems to identify imbalances, but I don’t like being too exposed when the liquidity starts to dry up, so I played it cautious and took more profit.
In the end, while my models were invaluable for setting up the trade, I made the final decisions on when to scale out and exit. It’s a balancing act—leveraging the power of algorithms but still relying on intuition and experience to navigate the nuances of the market. (wow can this guy get his head stuck up his ass even more???)
Monday Morning:
At 10:40 AM, I manually went long at 20,062, with a 15-point stop in place. My models had been indicating a shift in momentum, with the market profile showing a clear support level forming around this price. I don’t just rely on the bots for entry signals, though—they helped confirm the setup, but I was watching the order flow and could sense a possible breakout. So, I pulled the trigger.
Just a few minutes later, by 10:43 AM, I saw the market making a solid move up and decided to trim +30 points. My models were still bullish, but I’m always careful about banking profits on these early moves. You never know when the market might reverse, and I wasn’t about to let the gains slip away if volatility kicked back in.
By 10:47 AM, I tightened up my stops—my models were still giving me the green light, but the order flow started to show some stalling. I didn’t want to exit completely yet, but I also wasn’t going to leave myself too exposed. So, I left a trailing stop in place, managing risk on the remainder of the position while letting it run.
At 10:48 AM, I trimmed another +50 points as the market hit my target zone. The bots were indicating a potential for further upside, but I’ve learned to trust my instincts. The market was starting to slow down, and I was more than happy to take the bulk of the profits off the table at this point.
Finally, by 11:03 AM, the market began to lose steam, and I got stopped out of the rest of the position. The models were still calculating potential support below, but I wasn’t going to wait around to see if the bounce would hold. I was fully out, and the trade was wrapped up cleanly, locking in solid gains.
This trade was a perfect balance of trusting the algorithms but still making the final calls myself. The data told me the levels, but experience guided me on when to scale out and when to be cautious.
Wednesday:
Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: I fell asleep on Wednesday night being awake deep into the globex session, catching the short :)
Absolutely nerve-wracking but thats Nasdaq for you.
Fully resting myself on Thursday night, I was rejuvenated for Friday and deciding to trade crude for a change
At 8:48 AM, I entered a short position on Crude Oil Futures (CL) which is definitely not COLGATE STOCK at 67.75. The bots flagged a potential exhaustion in the recent rally, and the market profile showed a significant imbalance at that level. Although my models gave me the green light, I executed the trade manually, as I wanted to feel out the momentum myself. I always like to pull the trigger on key levels when I get that alignment between the algo signals and the market dynamics.
Just minutes later, I trimmed for 25 ticks at 8:51 AM. It’s my style to take partials early, especially when I see the market reacting well to the initial move. The order flow started to slow down a bit, so I wanted to secure some profits while letting the rest of the trade run. At this point, I set my stop on the remainder to manage the risk effectively.
By 9:06 AM, the price action confirmed my view, so I went back in short at 67.75. My system was still indicating downside pressure, and I liked the way the market was shaping up for another leg lower. I didn’t hesitate to re-enter since the earlier trim locked in profits, and this move had the potential for more.
At 9:44 AM, I trimmed 32 ticks on this second short. The market showed a quick drop, and I took advantage of the momentum. The algo suggested I could hold longer, but in fast-moving markets like crude, I prefer to lock in gains when I see a quick burst. I then set the rest to stop, trailing the position in case of a reversal.
Just a minute later, at 9:45 AM, I trimmed another 50 ticks, capitalizing on the further decline. My system’s signals were showing some support building up, so I wanted to be cautious with the remaining size. I like to manage the trade dynamically, and trimming into strength has always worked well for me.
Finally, by 9:48 AM, I trimmed 63 more ticks. The market hit a key level of support, and the price action was showing signs of bottoming out. While my models still had the bias to the downside, I wasn’t going to push my luck too much—taking profits at strategic points is key in keeping my edge sharp.
Throughout this trade, the algorithms provided key levels and directional bias, but I made the manual decisions on when to trim and re-enter based on real-time market behavior. It's a delicate balance of trusting the models but being hands-on with the execution.
At 10:43 AM, I went short on NQ at 13,322. My algos were signaling a shift in market structure, with volume building up around the highs, but I decided to execute the trade manually. There was too much resistance at that level, and the probability of a downward move was increasing.
By 10:51 AM, I still hadn't trimmed. My bots were suggesting holding steady as the market continued to drop. I wasn’t in a rush to take profits just yet—my strategy was to let the move play out a bit longer, with my eyes on the key levels below.
At 10:52 AM, the market had moved 30 points in my favor. I wanted to see a break of the 13,300 level, which seemed like the next key support. My systems were confirming that there was enough selling pressure to warrant holding on, but I was mentally preparing to manage the trade if that break didn't come.
Around 11:00 AM, I finally trimmed 28 points. I wasn't going to let the market reverse without taking something off the table. I set my stop at -20 points, ensuring that even if the market reversed, I would still lock in some profits.
By 11:10 AM, I had trimmed more and moved my stop to breakeven. At this point, the trade was stress-free—I’d already secured gains, and I was letting the rest of the position run without risk. The market was still heavy, and I had no reason to close everything out just yet.
Later, at 12:12 PM, I trimmed 100 more points. The market had continued to fall, and I was happy to take another chunk of profits. At this point, only a small runner was left on the table, and I set my stop breakeven to capture anything left in the move.
By 12:13 PM, The runner was still in play, but I was confident that, between my breakeven stop and the systems I had in place, the trade was fully under control. Whether the market would give more or stop me out, the bulk of the gains had already been secured.
This trade was about patience—letting the market give what it had, trimming strategically, and trusting the process, both human and algorithmic, to secure a solid profit.
And no week is complete without some 0dte SPX shenanigans.
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Moving on,
In March, I had shared 3 stocks that I thought would do well in the medium term.
Both BIPC and BN are up almost 30% from the weekly plan mentioning them.
CNQ on the other hand, rallied 13% right off the gate but has since then faltered quite a bit.
I do not focus on individual stocks as much but if I find undervalued companies based on my analysis I share them.
Take advantage of APEX’s 80% promo code and pass account in one day. Also $40 resets on your accounts. Use code MGUOHAIU or alternatively just click the button below
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Moving on,
All eyes are on the NFP print this week and all that matters is if we get downward revisions from prior prints as they pokes holes in the Fed’s narrative.
Bulls would want the NFP #s to be at or above 135k with about 4.2% unemployment rate in order to allay any recessionary fears.
Bears on the other hand would love a spike in unemployment rate to 4.3% and a softer NFP# with a mid-heavy revision for July & August. Bears are also looking at JOLTS and a worse JOLTS number can also help their mean reverting cause.
My model is predicting a down week this week but that is just a part of the puzzle and at the end of the day time & price are the only two truths of the markets.
Levels for the week:
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